LMFC vs ASM
Le Mans (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 27.2% fair 3.67
Draw 22.6% fair 4.43
ASM win 50.2% fair 1.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.9% / 21.9% / 54.2%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.23
—
1.96
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 ASM | 9.9% | |
| LMFC 1-2 ASM | 9.7% | |
| LMFC 0-1 ASM | 8.0% | |
| LMFC 0-2 ASM | 7.9% | |
| LMFC 1-3 ASM | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).