LMFC vs ASM
Le Mans (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
LMFC win 29.5% fair 3.39
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
ASM win 48.1% fair 2.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.5% / 21.4% / 53.1%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.36
—
2.03
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.2% | fair 2.92 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-2 ASM | 9.5% | |
| LMFC 1-1 ASM | 9.3% | |
| LMFC 0-2 ASM | 7.0% | |
| LMFC 0-1 ASM | 6.9% | |
| LMFC 2-2 ASM | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).