LMFC vs OGC
Le Mans (home) vs Nice · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
OGC win 34.9% fair 2.86
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.7% / 25.2% / 36.1%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.43
—
1.38
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 OGC | 11.9% | |
| LMFC 1-0 OGC | 8.6% | |
| LMFC 2-1 OGC | 8.5% | |
| LMFC 0-1 OGC | 8.3% | |
| LMFC 1-2 OGC | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).