LMFC vs PFC
Le Mans (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 30.1% fair 3.32
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
PFC win 45.9% fair 2.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.3% / 23.5% / 49.2%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.24
—
1.75
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 PFC | 10.9% | |
| LMFC 1-2 PFC | 9.5% | |
| LMFC 0-1 PFC | 8.8% | |
| LMFC 0-2 PFC | 7.7% | |
| LMFC 2-1 PFC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).