LMFC vs PSG
Le Mans (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 17.0% fair 5.90
Draw 18.2% fair 5.50
PSG win 64.9% fair 1.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 12.4% / 16.9% / 70.7%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
0.93
—
2.45
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.4% | fair 2.91 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 0-2 PSG | 10.2% | |
| LMFC 1-2 PSG | 9.5% | |
| LMFC 0-1 PSG | 8.4% | |
| LMFC 0-3 PSG | 8.3% | |
| LMFC 1-1 PSG | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 3.7 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).