LMFC vs REN
Le Mans (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 27.2% fair 3.67
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
REN win 51.5% fair 1.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.0% / 20.4% / 55.6%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.39
—
2.18
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.2% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.8% | fair 3.25 |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-2 REN | 9.3% | |
| LMFC 1-1 REN | 8.5% | |
| LMFC 1-3 REN | 6.8% | |
| LMFC 0-2 REN | 6.7% | |
| LMFC 2-2 REN | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).