LMFC vs STR
Le Mans (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 31.8% fair 3.14
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
STR win 45.2% fair 2.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.4% / 22.5% / 48.1%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.42
—
1.87
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 STR | 9.9% | |
| LMFC 1-2 STR | 9.2% | |
| LMFC 2-1 STR | 7.0% | |
| LMFC 0-1 STR | 7.0% | |
| LMFC 2-2 STR | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).