LMFC vs TFC
Le Mans (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
LMFC win 32.7% fair 3.06
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
TFC win 42.9% fair 2.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.4% / 24.1% / 46.5%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.28
—
1.66
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 TFC | 11.2% | |
| LMFC 1-2 TFC | 9.3% | |
| LMFC 0-1 TFC | 8.8% | |
| LMFC 0-2 TFC | 7.3% | |
| LMFC 2-1 TFC | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).