LMFC vs EST
Le Mans (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 66% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 44.6% fair 2.24
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
EST win 30.3% fair 3.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.5% / 24.9% / 30.6%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.56
—
1.25
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 EST | 11.8% | |
| LMFC 1-0 EST | 9.4% | |
| LMFC 2-1 EST | 9.1% | |
| LMFC 0-1 EST | 7.6% | |
| LMFC 1-2 EST | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).