RCL vs SCO
Lens (home) vs Angers · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 65.3% fair 1.53
Draw 19.5% fair 5.12
SCO win 15.2% fair 6.58
Expected Goals
RCL
2.21
—
0.88
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-0 SCO | 11.2% | |
| RCL 1-0 SCO | 10.1% | |
| RCL 2-1 SCO | 9.8% | |
| RCL 1-1 SCO | 8.9% | |
| RCL 3-0 SCO | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).