RCL vs AJA
Lens (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RCL win 64.4% fair 1.55
Draw 19.6% fair 5.09
AJA win 16.0% fair 6.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.3% / 18.7% / 14.0%.
Expected Goals
RCL
2.23
—
0.91
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.1% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-0 AJA | 10.7% | |
| RCL 2-1 AJA | 9.8% | |
| RCL 1-0 AJA | 9.6% | |
| RCL 1-1 AJA | 8.8% | |
| RCL 3-0 AJA | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).