RCL vs AJA
Lens (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 5-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RCL win 60.9% fair 1.64
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
AJA win 17.5% fair 5.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.4% / 20.9% / 15.7%.
Expected Goals
RCL
1.98
—
0.87
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 1-0 AJA | 11.5% | |
| RCL 2-0 AJA | 11.4% | |
| RCL 1-1 AJA | 10.0% | |
| RCL 2-1 AJA | 9.9% | |
| RCL 3-0 AJA | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).