RCL vs SB29
Lens (home) vs Brest · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 61.9% fair 1.62
Draw 19.6% fair 5.11
SB29 win 18.5% fair 5.40
Expected Goals
RCL
2.32
—
1.14
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.2% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.8% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 SB29 | 9.6% | |
| RCL 2-0 SB29 | 8.5% | |
| RCL 1-1 SB29 | 8.3% | |
| RCL 3-1 SB29 | 7.5% | |
| RCL 1-0 SB29 | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).