RCL vs HAC
Lens (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 63.6% fair 1.57
Draw 20.3% fair 4.92
HAC win 16.0% fair 6.23
Expected Goals
RCL
2.11
—
0.88
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-0 HAC | 11.2% | |
| RCL 1-0 HAC | 10.6% | |
| RCL 2-1 HAC | 9.8% | |
| RCL 1-1 HAC | 9.3% | |
| RCL 3-0 HAC | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).