RCL vs HAC
Lens (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RCL win 62.6% fair 1.60
Draw 20.9% fair 4.77
HAC win 16.5% fair 6.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 65.2% / 20.2% / 14.6%.
Expected Goals
RCL
2.05
—
0.85
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-0 HAC | 11.6% | |
| RCL 1-0 HAC | 11.3% | |
| RCL 2-1 HAC | 9.8% | |
| RCL 1-1 HAC | 9.6% | |
| RCL 3-0 HAC | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).