RCL vs LMFC
Lens (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 69.2% fair 1.45
Draw 17.1% fair 5.85
LMFC win 13.7% fair 7.28
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 73.5% / 15.5% / 11.0%.
Expected Goals
RCL
2.61
—
0.92
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.4% | fair 3.18 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-0 LMFC | 9.9% | |
| RCL 2-1 LMFC | 9.2% | |
| RCL 3-0 LMFC | 8.6% | |
| RCL 3-1 LMFC | 8.0% | |
| RCL 1-0 LMFC | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).