RCL vs LIL
Lens (home) vs Lille · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 46.8% fair 2.14
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
LIL win 28.5% fair 3.51
Expected Goals
RCL
1.61
—
1.20
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 1-1 LIL | 11.6% | |
| RCL 1-0 LIL | 9.7% | |
| RCL 2-1 LIL | 9.4% | |
| RCL 2-0 LIL | 7.8% | |
| RCL 0-1 LIL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).