RCL vs FCL
Lens (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RCL win 60.5% fair 1.65
Draw 20.3% fair 4.92
FCL win 19.2% fair 5.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.8% / 19.5% / 17.7%.
Expected Goals
RCL
2.23
—
1.10
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.3% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 FCL | 9.8% | |
| RCL 2-0 FCL | 8.9% | |
| RCL 1-1 FCL | 8.8% | |
| RCL 1-0 FCL | 7.9% | |
| RCL 3-1 FCL | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).