RCL vs OL
Lens (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
RCL win 50.9% fair 1.97
Draw 23.1% fair 4.34
OL win 26.1% fair 3.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.7% / 22.6% / 25.6%.
Expected Goals
RCL
1.86
—
1.25
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 1-1 OL | 10.4% | |
| RCL 2-1 OL | 9.6% | |
| RCL 1-0 OL | 8.3% | |
| RCL 2-0 OL | 7.7% | |
| RCL 1-2 OL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).