RCL vs OL
Lens (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-09 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RCL win 44.9% fair 2.23
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
OL win 31.7% fair 3.15
Expected Goals
RCL
1.77
—
1.47
OL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RCL ×1.100 (matched 10), OL ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 1-1 OL | 10.2% | |
| RCL 2-1 OL | 9.0% | |
| RCL 1-2 OL | 7.5% | |
| RCL 1-0 OL | 7.0% | |
| RCL 2-2 OL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).