RCL vs OM
Lens (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
RCL win 49.9% fair 2.01
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
OM win 28.2% fair 3.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.5% / 21.4% / 28.0%.
Expected Goals
RCL
2.03
—
1.48
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.9% | fair 3.14 |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 OM | 9.1% | |
| RCL 1-1 OM | 9.0% | |
| RCL 2-2 OM | 6.7% | |
| RCL 1-2 OM | 6.6% | |
| RCL 3-1 OM | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).