RCL vs OM
Lens (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 49.3% fair 2.03
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
OM win 28.9% fair 3.46
Expected Goals
RCL
2.05
—
1.53
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.5% | fair 3.27 |
| Both teams to score | 68.3% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 OM | 9.0% | |
| RCL 1-1 OM | 8.7% | |
| RCL 2-2 OM | 6.9% | |
| RCL 1-2 OM | 6.7% | |
| RCL 3-1 OM | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).