RCL vs ASM
Lens (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 51.6% fair 1.94
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
ASM win 26.1% fair 3.84
Expected Goals
RCL
1.97
—
1.32
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 1-1 ASM | 9.7% | |
| RCL 2-1 ASM | 9.5% | |
| RCL 1-0 ASM | 7.3% | |
| RCL 2-0 ASM | 7.2% | |
| RCL 1-2 ASM | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).