RCL vs OGC
Lens (home) vs Nice · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 65.2% fair 1.53
Draw 19.2% fair 5.21
OGC win 15.6% fair 6.42
Expected Goals
RCL
2.28
—
0.93
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-0 OGC | 10.5% | |
| RCL 2-1 OGC | 9.8% | |
| RCL 1-0 OGC | 9.2% | |
| RCL 1-1 OGC | 8.5% | |
| RCL 3-0 OGC | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).