RCL vs PFC
Lens (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RCL win 60.3% fair 1.66
Draw 20.5% fair 4.88
PFC win 19.2% fair 5.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.6% / 19.7% / 17.7%.
Expected Goals
RCL
2.20
—
1.09
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.2% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 PFC | 9.8% | |
| RCL 2-0 PFC | 9.0% | |
| RCL 1-1 PFC | 8.9% | |
| RCL 1-0 PFC | 8.2% | |
| RCL 3-1 PFC | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).