RCL vs PFC
Lens (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RCL win 60.6% fair 1.65
Draw 20.5% fair 4.88
PFC win 18.9% fair 5.29
Expected Goals
RCL
2.18
—
1.07
PFC
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RCL ×1.100 (matched 11), PFC ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.9% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 PFC | 9.9% | |
| RCL 2-0 PFC | 9.2% | |
| RCL 1-1 PFC | 9.1% | |
| RCL 1-0 PFC | 8.4% | |
| RCL 3-1 PFC | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).