RCL vs PSG
Lens (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
RCL win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
PSG win 38.2% fair 2.62
Expected Goals
RCL
1.61
—
1.64
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 1-1 PSG | 10.2% | |
| RCL 1-2 PSG | 8.4% | |
| RCL 2-1 PSG | 8.2% | |
| RCL 2-2 PSG | 6.8% | |
| RCL 0-1 PSG | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).