RCL vs PSG
Lens (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 35.3% fair 2.83
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
PSG win 40.9% fair 2.45
Expected Goals
RCL
1.48
—
1.66
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.3% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 1-1 PSG | 10.6% | |
| RCL 1-2 PSG | 8.8% | |
| RCL 2-1 PSG | 7.9% | |
| RCL 0-1 PSG | 7.2% | |
| RCL 2-2 PSG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).