RCL vs STR
Lens (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 58.4% fair 1.71
Draw 20.3% fair 4.93
STR win 21.3% fair 4.69
Expected Goals
RCL
2.26
—
1.26
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.6% | fair 3.17 |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 STR | 9.5% | |
| RCL 1-1 STR | 8.4% | |
| RCL 2-0 STR | 7.5% | |
| RCL 3-1 STR | 7.2% | |
| RCL 1-0 STR | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).