RCL vs TFC
Lens (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RCL win 60.1% fair 1.66
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
TFC win 19.3% fair 5.17
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.3% / 19.7% / 17.9%.
Expected Goals
RCL
2.19
—
1.09
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.2% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 TFC | 9.8% | |
| RCL 2-0 TFC | 9.0% | |
| RCL 1-1 TFC | 9.0% | |
| RCL 1-0 TFC | 8.2% | |
| RCL 3-1 TFC | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).