RCL vs TFC
Lens (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 56.1% fair 1.78
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
TFC win 22.1% fair 4.53
Expected Goals
RCL
2.02
—
1.15
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-1 TFC | 9.8% | |
| RCL 1-1 TFC | 9.7% | |
| RCL 2-0 TFC | 8.5% | |
| RCL 1-0 TFC | 8.4% | |
| RCL 3-1 TFC | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).