RCL vs EST
Lens (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RCL win 69.0% fair 1.45
Draw 17.6% fair 5.69
EST win 13.4% fair 7.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 73.1% / 16.1% / 10.8%.
Expected Goals
RCL
2.48
—
0.85
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | fair 2.82 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| RCL 2-0 EST | 11.1% | |
| RCL 2-1 EST | 9.4% | |
| RCL 3-0 EST | 9.1% | |
| RCL 1-0 EST | 8.9% | |
| RCL 3-1 EST | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RCL goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).