LIL vs SCO
Lille (home) vs Angers · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 59.5% fair 1.68
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
SCO win 17.5% fair 5.70
Expected Goals
LIL
1.80
—
0.80
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | fair 2.18 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-0 SCO | 13.4% | |
| LIL 2-0 SCO | 12.0% | |
| LIL 1-1 SCO | 10.7% | |
| LIL 2-1 SCO | 9.6% | |
| LIL 0-0 SCO | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).