LIL vs AJA
Lille (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
LIL win 58.0% fair 1.73
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
AJA win 19.3% fair 5.19
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.9% / 22.3% / 17.8%.
Expected Goals
LIL
1.86
—
0.90
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-0 AJA | 11.8% | |
| LIL 2-0 AJA | 10.9% | |
| LIL 1-1 AJA | 10.6% | |
| LIL 2-1 AJA | 9.9% | |
| LIL 3-0 AJA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).