LIL vs AJA
Lille (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 58.7% fair 1.70
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
AJA win 18.5% fair 5.40
Expected Goals
LIL
1.84
—
0.87
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-0 AJA | 12.2% | |
| LIL 2-0 AJA | 11.3% | |
| LIL 1-1 AJA | 10.6% | |
| LIL 2-1 AJA | 9.8% | |
| LIL 3-0 AJA | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).