LIL vs SB29
Lille (home) vs Brest · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
LIL win 58.9% fair 1.70
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
SB29 win 19.8% fair 5.04
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.0% / 20.5% / 18.5%.
Expected Goals
LIL
2.09
—
1.06
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 2-1 SB29 | 9.9% | |
| LIL 1-1 SB29 | 9.5% | |
| LIL 2-0 SB29 | 9.3% | |
| LIL 1-0 SB29 | 8.9% | |
| LIL 3-1 SB29 | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).