LIL vs SB29
Lille (home) vs Brest · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.96 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LIL win 53.0% fair 1.89
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
SB29 win 24.2% fair 4.13
Expected Goals
LIL
1.89
—
1.18
SB29
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LIL ×0.964 (matched 9), SB29 ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 SB29 | 10.4% | |
| LIL 2-1 SB29 | 9.8% | |
| LIL 1-0 SB29 | 8.8% | |
| LIL 2-0 SB29 | 8.3% | |
| LIL 3-1 SB29 | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).