LIL vs HAC
Lille (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 1-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LIL win 54.6% fair 1.83
Draw 26.1% fair 3.84
HAC win 19.3% fair 5.18
Expected Goals
LIL
1.51
—
0.73
HAC
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LIL ×0.900 (matched 9), HAC ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.7% | fair 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
| Both teams to score | 40.3% | fair 2.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-0 HAC | 16.1% | |
| LIL 2-0 HAC | 12.1% | |
| LIL 1-1 HAC | 11.7% | |
| LIL 0-0 HAC | 10.7% | |
| LIL 2-1 HAC | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).