LIL vs HAC
Lille (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
LIL win 55.8% fair 1.79
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
HAC win 19.8% fair 5.04
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.5% / 24.1% / 18.4%.
Expected Goals
LIL
1.68
—
0.83
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | fair 2.18 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-0 HAC | 13.6% | |
| LIL 2-0 HAC | 11.4% | |
| LIL 1-1 HAC | 11.3% | |
| LIL 2-1 HAC | 9.5% | |
| LIL 0-0 HAC | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).