LIL vs LMFC
Lille (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 63.6% fair 1.57
Draw 20.4% fair 4.91
LMFC win 16.0% fair 6.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.0% / 19.3% / 13.7%.
Expected Goals
LIL
2.13
—
0.84
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 2-0 LMFC | 11.6% | |
| LIL 1-0 LMFC | 10.9% | |
| LIL 2-1 LMFC | 9.8% | |
| LIL 1-1 LMFC | 9.2% | |
| LIL 3-0 LMFC | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).