LIL vs RCL
Lille (home) vs Lens · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 40.1% fair 2.50
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
RCL win 34.6% fair 2.89
Expected Goals
LIL
1.44
—
1.35
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 RCL | 11.9% | |
| LIL 1-0 RCL | 8.9% | |
| LIL 2-1 RCL | 8.6% | |
| LIL 0-1 RCL | 8.3% | |
| LIL 1-2 RCL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).