LIL vs RCL
Lille (home) vs Lens · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
LIL win 39.0% fair 2.57
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
RCL win 36.7% fair 2.73
Expected Goals
LIL
1.52
—
1.51
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.6% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 RCL | 11.1% | |
| LIL 2-1 RCL | 8.4% | |
| LIL 1-2 RCL | 8.4% | |
| LIL 1-0 RCL | 7.3% | |
| LIL 0-1 RCL | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).