LIL vs FCL
Lille (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 50.8% fair 1.97
Draw 25.5% fair 3.93
FCL win 23.7% fair 4.22
Expected Goals
LIL
1.56
—
0.96
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-0 FCL | 12.6% | |
| LIL 1-1 FCL | 12.0% | |
| LIL 2-0 FCL | 9.8% | |
| LIL 2-1 FCL | 9.4% | |
| LIL 0-0 FCL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).