LIL vs OL
Lille (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
LIL win 44.6% fair 2.24
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
OL win 30.3% fair 3.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.5% / 25.0% / 30.5%.
Expected Goals
LIL
1.55
—
1.24
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 OL | 11.8% | |
| LIL 1-0 OL | 9.5% | |
| LIL 2-1 OL | 9.1% | |
| LIL 0-1 OL | 7.6% | |
| LIL 2-0 OL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).