LIL vs OL
Lille (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 42.0% fair 2.38
Draw 26.5% fair 3.77
OL win 31.4% fair 3.18
Expected Goals
LIL
1.37
—
1.16
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 OL | 12.6% | |
| LIL 1-0 OL | 10.9% | |
| LIL 0-1 OL | 9.2% | |
| LIL 2-1 OL | 8.7% | |
| LIL 0-0 OL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).