LIL vs OM
Lille (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 44.2% fair 2.26
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
OM win 31.9% fair 3.14
Expected Goals
LIL
1.67
—
1.40
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 OM | 10.8% | |
| LIL 2-1 OM | 9.1% | |
| LIL 1-0 OM | 7.7% | |
| LIL 1-2 OM | 7.6% | |
| LIL 2-0 OM | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).