LIL vs ASM
Lille (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 46.4% fair 2.16
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
ASM win 28.8% fair 3.47
Expected Goals
LIL
1.60
—
1.21
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 ASM | 11.6% | |
| LIL 1-0 ASM | 9.6% | |
| LIL 2-1 ASM | 9.3% | |
| LIL 2-0 ASM | 7.7% | |
| LIL 0-1 ASM | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).