LIL vs OGC
Lille (home) vs Nice · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 59.4% fair 1.68
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
OGC win 18.0% fair 5.55
Expected Goals
LIL
1.86
—
0.85
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-0 OGC | 12.3% | |
| LIL 2-0 OGC | 11.5% | |
| LIL 1-1 OGC | 10.5% | |
| LIL 2-1 OGC | 9.8% | |
| LIL 3-0 OGC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).