LIL vs PFC
Lille (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 49.3% fair 2.03
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
PFC win 25.8% fair 3.88
Expected Goals
LIL
1.62
—
1.08
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 PFC | 11.8% | |
| LIL 1-0 PFC | 10.9% | |
| LIL 2-1 PFC | 9.5% | |
| LIL 2-0 PFC | 8.8% | |
| LIL 0-1 PFC | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).