LIL vs PSG
Lille (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
LIL win 33.0% fair 3.03
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
PSG win 42.5% fair 2.35
Expected Goals
LIL
1.33
—
1.61
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 PSG | 11.3% | |
| LIL 1-2 PSG | 9.1% | |
| LIL 0-1 PSG | 8.5% | |
| LIL 2-1 PSG | 7.5% | |
| LIL 1-0 PSG | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).