LIL vs REN
Lille (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 47.9% fair 2.09
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
REN win 28.8% fair 3.47
Expected Goals
LIL
1.80
—
1.35
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 REN | 10.4% | |
| LIL 2-1 REN | 9.4% | |
| LIL 1-0 REN | 7.7% | |
| LIL 1-2 REN | 7.0% | |
| LIL 2-0 REN | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).