LIL vs STR
Lille (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 52.7% fair 1.90
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
STR win 24.2% fair 4.13
Expected Goals
LIL
1.85
—
1.16
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 STR | 10.6% | |
| LIL 2-1 STR | 9.8% | |
| LIL 1-0 STR | 9.2% | |
| LIL 2-0 STR | 8.5% | |
| LIL 1-2 STR | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).