LIL vs TFC
Lille (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIL win 50.6% fair 1.98
Draw 24.7% fair 4.06
TFC win 24.7% fair 4.04
Expected Goals
LIL
1.65
—
1.05
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 1-1 TFC | 11.6% | |
| LIL 1-0 TFC | 11.0% | |
| LIL 2-1 TFC | 9.6% | |
| LIL 2-0 TFC | 9.1% | |
| LIL 0-1 TFC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).