LIL vs EST
Lille (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
LIL win 62.3% fair 1.61
Draw 20.8% fair 4.81
EST win 16.9% fair 5.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.2% / 19.6% / 14.2%.
Expected Goals
LIL
2.11
—
0.86
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIL 2-0 EST | 11.4% | |
| LIL 1-0 EST | 10.8% | |
| LIL 2-1 EST | 9.8% | |
| LIL 1-1 EST | 9.3% | |
| LIL 3-0 EST | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIL goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).