FCL vs SCO
Lorient (home) vs Angers · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 51.0% fair 1.96
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
SCO win 23.6% fair 4.24
Expected Goals
FCL
1.57
—
0.95
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-0 SCO | 12.6% | |
| FCL 1-1 SCO | 12.0% | |
| FCL 2-0 SCO | 9.9% | |
| FCL 2-1 SCO | 9.4% | |
| FCL 0-0 SCO | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).