FCL vs AJA
Lorient (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 50.0% fair 2.00
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
AJA win 24.9% fair 4.01
Expected Goals
FCL
1.60
—
1.03
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 AJA | 11.9% | |
| FCL 1-0 AJA | 11.5% | |
| FCL 2-1 AJA | 9.5% | |
| FCL 2-0 AJA | 9.2% | |
| FCL 0-1 AJA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).