FCL vs AJA
Lorient (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
FCL win 48.6% fair 2.06
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
AJA win 26.5% fair 3.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.2% / 24.7% / 26.1%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.62
—
1.11
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 AJA | 11.7% | |
| FCL 1-0 AJA | 10.6% | |
| FCL 2-1 AJA | 9.5% | |
| FCL 2-0 AJA | 8.6% | |
| FCL 0-1 AJA | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).