FCL vs SB29
Lorient (home) vs Brest · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 46.9% fair 2.13
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
SB29 win 28.6% fair 3.49
Expected Goals
FCL
1.65
—
1.23
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 SB29 | 11.4% | |
| FCL 2-1 SB29 | 9.4% | |
| FCL 1-0 SB29 | 9.2% | |
| FCL 2-0 SB29 | 7.6% | |
| FCL 1-2 SB29 | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).