FCL vs HAC
Lorient (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 49.4% fair 2.02
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
HAC win 24.5% fair 4.07
Expected Goals
FCL
1.50
—
0.95
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-0 HAC | 12.9% | |
| FCL 1-1 HAC | 12.3% | |
| FCL 2-0 HAC | 9.7% | |
| FCL 2-1 HAC | 9.2% | |
| FCL 0-0 HAC | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).