FCL vs LMFC
Lorient (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 55.3% fair 1.81
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
LMFC win 21.6% fair 4.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.3% / 22.5% / 20.1%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.86
—
1.00
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 LMFC | 10.7% | |
| FCL 1-0 LMFC | 10.6% | |
| FCL 2-1 LMFC | 9.9% | |
| FCL 2-0 LMFC | 9.9% | |
| FCL 3-1 LMFC | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).