FCL vs RCL
Lorient (home) vs Lens · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 31.6% fair 3.16
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
RCL win 43.6% fair 2.29
Expected Goals
FCL
1.26
—
1.60
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 RCL | 11.6% | |
| FCL 1-2 RCL | 9.2% | |
| FCL 0-1 RCL | 9.2% | |
| FCL 0-2 RCL | 7.4% | |
| FCL 2-1 RCL | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).