FCL vs LIL
Lorient (home) vs Lille · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
FCL win 34.0% fair 2.94
Draw 24.9% fair 4.01
LIL win 41.0% fair 2.44
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.4% / 24.8% / 42.8%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.31
—
1.55
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 LIL | 11.6% | |
| FCL 1-2 LIL | 9.0% | |
| FCL 0-1 LIL | 8.9% | |
| FCL 2-1 LIL | 7.6% | |
| FCL 1-0 LIL | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).