FCL vs LIL
Lorient (home) vs Lille · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 33.9% fair 2.95
Draw 27.1% fair 3.69
LIL win 39.0% fair 2.57
Expected Goals
FCL
1.15
—
1.30
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 LIL | 12.9% | |
| FCL 0-1 LIL | 11.2% | |
| FCL 1-0 LIL | 9.9% | |
| FCL 0-0 LIL | 8.6% | |
| FCL 1-2 LIL | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).