FCL vs OL
Lorient (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
OL win 39.8% fair 2.51
Expected Goals
FCL
1.20
—
1.38
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 OL | 12.6% | |
| FCL 0-1 OL | 10.5% | |
| FCL 1-0 OL | 9.1% | |
| FCL 1-2 OL | 8.7% | |
| FCL 0-0 OL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).