FCL vs OM
Lorient (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 35.0% fair 2.86
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
OM win 41.1% fair 2.43
Expected Goals
FCL
1.46
—
1.66
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 OM | 10.7% | |
| FCL 1-2 OM | 8.9% | |
| FCL 2-1 OM | 7.8% | |
| FCL 0-1 OM | 7.3% | |
| FCL 2-2 OM | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).